Existential Risk Probability Estimates Remain Too Inconsistent to Support Actual Policy Decisions

Researchers published a study noting that existential risk estimates span from near-zero to near-certain, which means the field produces no actionable signal. Policy requires convergence. The estimates have not converged. The same researchers and their peers are continuing to publish estimates in the same range.

This is the normal state of affairs for questions that cannot be answered. The field persists because the question persists. The question persists because the answer would require either stopping or accepting the risk. Neither is administratively feasible. The estimates will continue to diverge.

Policy will be written anyway. It will reference the estimates. The estimates will be cited selectively. The range will remain unchanged. This process is already policy.